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India’s Inflation Slumps to Six-Year Low as U.S. Consumer Prices Rise to 2.7%

From monsoon-boosted harvests that cooled Indian food inflation to tariff-driven price rises in the U.S., central banks have taken opposite approaches

Customers buy fruits and vegetables at an open air evening market in Ahmedabad, India, August 21, 2023. REUTERS/Amit Dave/File Photo
A teller counts U.S. dollar bank notes at a money changer in Jakarta, Indonesia, April 9, 2025. Picture taken through glass. REUTERS/Willy Kurniawan/ File Photo
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Overview

  • India’s headline inflation fell to 2.1% in June, its lowest level since January 2019, with food prices slipping 1.06% year-on-year.
  • Favorable monsoon forecasts and record crop production have kept food inflation in negative territory, enabling the RBI to deliver a 50-basis-point rate cut in May and consider further easing.
  • In the U.S., the Consumer Price Index rose 0.3% month-on-month in June and 2.7% year-on-year, marking a rebound from sub-forecast readings earlier this year.
  • Core U.S. inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy components, accelerated to 2.9% on an annual basis amid higher shelter and tariff-impacted goods costs.
  • With tariff pass-through beginning to feed into consumer costs, the Federal Reserve opted to keep its policy rate at 4.25%–4.50% in July pending clearer inflation trends.