Overview

• India's retail inflation dropped to 3.16% in April 2025, its lowest level in nearly six years, driven by a significant decline in food prices, particularly vegetables.
• Wholesale inflation eased to a 13-month low of 0.85%, reflecting improved supply conditions and lower fuel costs, bolstering a disinflationary trend.
• The Reserve Bank of India has already reduced its policy repo rate by 50 basis points in 2025 and is expected to announce another cut at the June Monetary Policy Committee meeting.
• Core inflation, excluding volatile food and energy prices, rose to 4.21% in April, signaling lingering pressures from past price surges despite broader disinflation.
• Analysts anticipate further downward revisions to the RBI’s FY26 inflation forecast, though risks from monsoon variability and global commodity cycles remain significant.