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2h ago

India’s Inflation Falls to Record 0.25% in October on Food Slide and GST Cuts

GST rate changes alongside deep food deflation drove the drop, raising odds of RBI easing at the December policy meeting.

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Overview

  • Official NSO data show headline CPI at 0.25% year-on-year, the lowest in the current series, after a revised 1.44% in September.
  • Food inflation fell 5.02%, with vegetables down 27.57% and onions cheaper by 54.3%, reflecting GST pass-through and a favorable base.
  • Core inflation stayed elevated near 4.4–4.49%, lifted by surges in precious metals while edible oils registered double‑digit inflation around 11%.
  • Rural inflation turned negative at about −0.25% versus roughly 0.9% in urban areas, with sharp state divergences including Kerala at 8.56% and several northern states in deflation.
  • Economists see a greater chance of a December rate cut, though they flag temporary drivers, uneven GST transmission, and incoming growth and trade data as key to the RBI’s decision.