Overview

• India's retail inflation dropped to 3.16% in April 2025, marking its lowest level since 2019 and falling below economists' forecast of 3.27%.
• Food inflation slowed to 1.78% in April, with vegetable prices declining by 11% year-on-year, compared to a 7.04% drop in March.
• The Reserve Bank of India is expected to implement a 25 basis point rate cut in its June meeting, supported by the disinflationary trend.
• Global factors, such as lower energy prices and a stronger rupee, have helped contain imported inflation pressures.
• Analysts forecast an average inflation rate of 3.7% for fiscal 2026, assuming favorable monsoon conditions and stable commodity prices.