Overview

• Official data show the Consumer Price Index at 1.54% in September, driven by a fourth straight month of food deflation with the CFPI at -2.28% and vegetable prices down 21.38% year-on-year.
• Rural inflation eased to 1.07% and urban inflation to 2.04%, extending broad disinflation across regions.
• Core inflation rose to about 4.4%–4.5%, lifted by housing and a surge in gold prices, even as most food categories cooled.
• Economists expect October’s print to soften further as late‑September GST rate cuts and favorable base effects filter through, with some forecasting readings near 1%.
• After holding the repo rate at 5.5% in October and lowering its FY26 projection, the RBI has indicated scope for additional easing, and attention is on a potential December cut as state outcomes diverge widely from Kerala near 9% to Uttar Pradesh in negative territory.