Overview
- Retail CPI excluding gold is projected to stay negative for the next two months, according to SBI Research.
- October CPI printed 0.25% year-on-year; excluding gold, headline fell to -0.57% and core eased to 2.6% as gold pushed personal care and effects inflation to 57.8%.
- SBI estimates the recent GST rationalisation cut measured inflation by about 85 basis points, exceeding earlier 65–75 bps estimates.
- Inflation is highly uneven across states, with Kerala at 8.56% and 12 of 22 states in negative territory.
- With Q2 FY26 growth above 7% and rates left unchanged in October, SBI says any December move will require careful communication alongside close attention to liquidity and credit transmission as loan growth outpaces deposits.