Overview
- The 10‑year benchmark hovered near 6.45% on Sept. 9 after spiking to roughly 6.60% earlier in the month, easing from 6.585% at September’s start.
- Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman reassured investors the Centre will not raise borrowing beyond the planned programme.
- Estimated GST rationalisation revenue loss of a little over Rs 48,000 crore is seen as manageable for the Centre, with some analysts seeing no need for additional borrowing.
- State Development Loan yields are expected to stay elevated as states absorb revenue hits, raising risks of missed deficit targets or capex trims.
- Fiscal strains linger with April–July gross tax receipts up just 0.8% year‑on‑year and nominal GDP tracking below budget assumptions, while higher sovereign yields have lifted corporate funding costs and nudged bank lending rates, a dynamic the RBI governor flagged through the sovereign yield transmission channel.