Overview

• Fitch Ratings has revised India's GDP growth forecast for FY25 to 6.2%, down from 6.3%, citing escalating US-China trade tensions and global economic uncertainty.
• Despite the revision, India is projected to grow at 6.5% in 2025 according to UNCTAD, maintaining its position as the world's fastest-growing major economy.
• Global growth forecasts have been downgraded, with Fitch projecting less than 2% growth in 2025, the weakest since 2009 excluding the pandemic.
• The US effective tariff rate has surged to 23%, its highest since 1909, contributing to a sharp rise in policy uncertainty and trade disruptions.
• South Asia is expected to grow by 5.6% in 2025, with India's robust public spending and recent monetary easing providing economic resilience.