Overview
- Nominal GDP is projected at Rs 357.14 lakh crore, an 8% rise that roughly aligns with the Union Budget’s assumed level.
- Services are seen expanding about 9.1–9.9% and manufacturing 7.0%, while investment (gross fixed capital formation) is estimated to grow 7.8%.
- With an 8% expansion in the first half, the estimates imply second‑half growth near 6.8–6.9%.
- A shift to a 2022–23 base year and the second advance estimates on February 27 could materially revise levels and growth, with SBI and Morgan Stanley flagging potential upside to FY26.
- Most forecasts point to moderation in FY27 to roughly 6.6–6.9%, and analysts highlight trade uncertainty from steep US tariffs as a key constraint.