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India’s FY26 Growth Pegged at 7.4% in NSO First Estimates, Led by Services and Manufacturing

Low inflation holds nominal growth to 8%, preserving the Budget’s projections.

Overview

  • Nominal GDP is projected at Rs 357.14 lakh crore, an 8% rise that roughly aligns with the Union Budget’s assumed level.
  • Services are seen expanding about 9.1–9.9% and manufacturing 7.0%, while investment (gross fixed capital formation) is estimated to grow 7.8%.
  • With an 8% expansion in the first half, the estimates imply second‑half growth near 6.8–6.9%.
  • A shift to a 2022–23 base year and the second advance estimates on February 27 could materially revise levels and growth, with SBI and Morgan Stanley flagging potential upside to FY26.
  • Most forecasts point to moderation in FY27 to roughly 6.6–6.9%, and analysts highlight trade uncertainty from steep US tariffs as a key constraint.