Overview
- The Finance Ministry’s September Monthly Economic Review says growth momentum strengthened in Q2 and the FY26 outlook has been raised, with IMF at 6.6% and RBI at 6.8%.
- A Reuters poll taken Oct. 15–24 pegs FY26 GDP growth at a median 6.7% after a strong Q1 and GST rate cuts aimed at spurring consumption.
- GST 2.0 took effect on Sept. 22 to bolster spending, and CAIT reports record festive sales of ₹6.05 lakh crore this season.
- Total exports of goods and services rose 4.4% year-on-year in H1 FY26 to $413.3 billion, with early signs of destination diversification despite steep U.S. tariffs reported at an overall 50% levy.
- Retail inflation cooled to 1.54% in September, aiding policy space, while fresh data show IIP up 4% in September with manufacturing up 4.8% even as core industry growth slowed.