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India’s FY26 Growth Outlook Brightens as Domestic Demand Offsets Tariff Drag

A Finance Ministry review credits GST 2.0–driven festive demand for keeping the outlook firm despite U.S. tariff headwinds.

Overview

  • The Finance Ministry’s September Monthly Economic Review says growth momentum strengthened in Q2 and the FY26 outlook has been raised, with IMF at 6.6% and RBI at 6.8%.
  • A Reuters poll taken Oct. 15–24 pegs FY26 GDP growth at a median 6.7% after a strong Q1 and GST rate cuts aimed at spurring consumption.
  • GST 2.0 took effect on Sept. 22 to bolster spending, and CAIT reports record festive sales of ₹6.05 lakh crore this season.
  • Total exports of goods and services rose 4.4% year-on-year in H1 FY26 to $413.3 billion, with early signs of destination diversification despite steep U.S. tariffs reported at an overall 50% levy.
  • Retail inflation cooled to 1.54% in September, aiding policy space, while fresh data show IIP up 4% in September with manufacturing up 4.8% even as core industry growth slowed.