Overview

• The Asian Development Bank lowered its FY26 GDP forecast to 6.5% from 6.7%, citing elevated US baseline tariffs and global trade uncertainty
• India Ratings and Research trimmed its growth outlook to 6.3%, pointing to unilateral US tariff hikes and a weaker investment climate
• Standard Chartered projects a 6.6% expansion in FY26, driven by monetary easing, income‐tax reductions and an above‐normal monsoon
• The Reserve Bank of India reported robust domestic demand supported by rural output and services, with retail inflation easing to near 2.1% in June
• The IMF flagged a widening current account gap—forecast at 0.9% of GDP in FY26—and urged easing import curbs and liberalising FDI norms to shore up external stability