Overview

• SBI's nowcasting model projects FY25 GDP growth at 6.3%, with Q4 estimates between 6.4% and 6.5%.
• Barclays forecasts Q4 FY25 growth at 7.2%, driven by improved agricultural output and a sharp rise in net indirect tax collections.
• The Reserve Bank of India emphasizes the economy's resilience against global trade and tariff uncertainties, citing strong industrial and services sector performance.
• Fitch Ratings has raised India's average growth potential for 2023–2028 to 6.4%, reflecting a stronger-than-expected post-pandemic recovery.
• The IMF has downgraded India's FY26 growth outlook to 6.2%, citing ongoing global trade tensions and policy uncertainty.