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India’s Fiscal Deficit Hits 38% of FY26 Goal by August as Capex Accelerates

Analysts expect H2 non-tax inflows, including disinvestment, to help preserve the fiscal glide path despite softer taxes.

Overview

  • The Centre recorded a Rs 5.98 lakh crore shortfall in April–August, equal to 38.1% of the FY26 target, compared with 27% in the same period last year, according to CGA data.
  • Net tax revenue slipped to Rs 8.10 lakh crore from Rs 8.70 lakh crore a year earlier, while non-tax receipts rose to Rs 4.40 lakh crore and total spending reached Rs 18.81 lakh crore.
  • Capital expenditure climbed to Rs 4.31 lakh crore, reflecting a front-loaded infrastructure push that has outpaced last year’s pace.
  • Transfers to states totaled Rs 5.30 lakh crore, Rs 74,431 crore higher year on year, shaping cash flows in the first five months.
  • Some reports cite the FY26 deficit target as Rs 15.69 lakh crore or 4.4% of GDP, while others use Rs 15.7 lakh crore or 4.9%, and the CGA reiterates that monthly figures are not definitive for the full year.