Overview
- NSO pegs nominal GDP at about ₹357.13–357.14 lakh crore, a level that aligns with the Budget’s assumption even though nominal growth trails the 10.1% projection.
- Services are estimated to grow 9.1% and manufacturing about 7%, with private consumption up 7% and investment (GFCF) rising 7.8%, pointing to a more investment‑led mix.
- Growth ran near 8% in the first half of FY26 and is implied to ease to roughly 6.9% in the second half as front‑loaded public capex normalizes.
- SBI sees FY26 growth near 7.5% with an upward bias and Morgan Stanley projects about 7.6%, while the UN pegs calendar‑year 2026 at 6.6% and brokerages see FY27 nearer 6.5–6.8%.
- A new GDP series with 2022–23 as base is due in February and the Second Advance Estimates arrive on Feb. 27, with analysts warning that US tariff uncertainty remains a key external risk even as export impacts have been milder than feared.