Overview
- This week the government’s Sample Registration System reported India’s total fertility rate at 1.9, below the 2.1 replacement level.
- Fertility varies sharply across the country with urban India around 1.5, New Delhi near 1.2, and states such as Bihar and Uttar Pradesh remaining above replacement.
- Demographers say demographic momentum will keep the population rising for decades and that it is likely to peak near about 1.7 billion in 30 to 40 years before starting to fall.
- Analysts link the decline to higher female education and workforce participation, faster urbanisation, lower child mortality, and wider access to family planning, and they warn this raises the risk India will age before it reaches higher per‑capita income.
- Some states have begun pro‑natal measures such as cash incentives and state‑funded IVF, but economists urge national focus on policies to raise female labour participation, expand childcare and eldercare, and boost skills and productivity to sustain growth.