Overview
- Government Sample Registration System data published in early June showed India’s total fertility rate has dropped to 1.9 children per woman, below the replacement level of about 2.1.
- Fertility varies sharply across the country with urban India around 1.5, New Delhi near 1.2, and several northern states such as Bihar and Uttar Pradesh remaining above replacement.
- Demographers say population decline will not be immediate because demographic momentum will push numbers higher, with projections of a peak near 1.7 billion in roughly 30–40 years before a sustained fall.
- Experts attribute the drop mainly to rising female education and workforce participation, rapid urbanisation, lower infant and child mortality, and wider access to contraception and reproductive health services.
- Policymakers and analysts warn of a 15–20 year window to raise productivity, build childcare and eldercare systems, and boost female labour-force participation while some states have started incentives and IVF programs and public figures have amplified the debate.