Overview
- Official Sample Registration System figures and the UNFPA’s 2025 report put India’s total fertility rate at roughly 1.9 births per woman, below the 2.1 replacement benchmark.
- The decline is uneven across the country: only six states — Bihar, Uttar Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Chhattisgarh and Jharkhand — remain above replacement while Delhi records about 1.2 births per woman.
- Demographers link the drop to rising female education and workforce participation, faster urbanisation, later marriage and childbirth, and higher costs of raising children.
- Long‑term population forecasts differ: United Nations projections foresee growth into the 2060s before decline, while other models cited in recent analyses suggest an earlier mid‑century peak and faster shrinkage thereafter.
- Because of demographic momentum India’s population can still grow for decades, so policymakers are likely to focus on raising productivity, expanding labour‑force participation, revising migration and family supports, and preparing for an ageing population.