Overview
- Government Sample Registration System (SRS) data and the UNFPA’s 2025 State of World Population report record India’s total fertility rate at 1.9 births per woman, below the 2.1 replacement threshold.
- The decline is widespread but uneven, with only six states — Bihar, Uttar Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Chhattisgarh and Jharkhand — remaining above replacement and Delhi registering about 1.2 births per woman.
- Demographers cite rising female education and workforce participation, urbanisation, later marriage and higher child-rearing costs as the main drivers of falling fertility.
- Analyses cited in recent coverage, including a June 4 Economist model, project a mid-century population peak followed by long-term decline if current trends continue, though outcomes depend on future fertility and migration.
- Public attention intensified after high-profile posts on social media on June 6, and commentators are urging policy responses that focus on productivity, female workforce support, care infrastructure and managed migration rather than pronatalist fixes.