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India’s Exports Hold Up Despite US Tariff Shock as Officials Flag Solid 2026 Outlook

Officials say diversification and upcoming FTAs will help sustain momentum through a softer global trade outlook.

Overview

  • Shipments to the US fell in September–October after a 50% duty took effect in August but rebounded 22.61% in November to USD 6.98 billion.
  • India’s goods and services exports reached USD 825.25 billion in 2024–25, with USD 562 billion recorded in April–November 2025, according to the commerce secretary.
  • The government outlined a mitigation package that includes a Rs 25,060 crore export-promotion mission, collateral-free credit up to Rs 20,000 crore, and longer export-credit tenors with a moratorium option.
  • Electronics led sectoral gains with exports up nearly 39% in November, alongside broader diversification across markets in Europe, East Asia and South Asia.
  • The WTO projects global trade growth of 2.4% in 2025 but just 0.5% in 2026, and exporters remain cautious as they seek progress on a US bilateral pact and an EU trade deal.