Overview

• Finance Ministry’s May review described India’s macroeconomic outlook as a “relative goldilocks situation” but cautioned that oil price swings and trade policy uncertainty pose ongoing risks.
• Global crude prices that spiked after Israel-Iran hostilities and U.S. intervention have fallen below $70 per barrel since a June 24 ceasefire, though insurance costs and potential Strait of Hormuz disruptions could keep landed costs elevated.
• Consumer price inflation hit a 75-month low of 2.82% in May, prompting the RBI to cut its repo rate by 100 basis points this year and plan a 100-basis-point reduction in bank reserve requirements.
• High-frequency indicators such as e-way bill generation, which reached a record 122.7 million in May, and diesel and petrol consumption at all-time highs underscore strong business activity and consumer demand.
• Unemployment rose to 5.6% in May but the TeamLease Employment Outlook Report projects 2.8% net job growth in the first half of FY26 as the government launches agriculture, manufacturing, resources and technology missions to boost productivity.