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India’s China Trade Deficit Projected to Reach $106 Billion in 2025, GTRI Says

A new inter-ministerial panel will examine the imbalance driven by hard-to-substitute inputs.

Overview

  • India’s imports from China are estimated at $123.5 billion in 2025 against projected exports of $17.5 billion, according to GTRI.
  • Nearly four-fifths of inbound purchases concentrate in electronics, machinery, organic chemicals and plastics, the think tank reported.
  • Electronics led January–October 2025 imports at $38 billion, including mobile components ($8.6 billion), integrated circuits ($6.2 billion) and laptops ($4.5 billion).
  • A written reply to the Lok Sabha by Minister of State Jitin Prasada attributed the gap to raw materials, intermediates and capital goods used in domestic production.
  • The government has set up an Inter-Ministerial Committee to review trends and propose corrective measures, as November exports to China jumped 90% to $2.2 billion led by naphtha and electronics parts.