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India’s 7.8% Q1 Growth Figure Draws Sharp Technical and Political Challenge

Opposition questions base-year revisions and the low GDP deflator, forcing the finance ministry to answer detailed queries on methodology.

Overview

  • The government reported 7.8% real GDP growth for April–June 2026 under a revised 2022–23 national-accounts series, a number published in early September that outperformed forecasts.
  • Critics including former finance secretary Subhash Chandra Garg say the new series lowered last year’s GDP estimates and so inflated year-on-year growth, and Garg calculated nominal growth near 2.5–2.6% using the old base.
  • Congress has formally asked the finance minister how the new series produced what it calls an aggregate downward revision of about ₹43 lakh crore across four years and requested a full methodological explanation.
  • Opponents also dispute the quarter’s GDP deflator of 2.5% as too low compared with retail inflation at about 3.9% and wholesale inflation near 9.4%, saying a higher deflator would cut reported real growth sharply.
  • The World Bank’s Neelkanth Mishra and several government economists have defended the revised series as methodologically improved and not directly comparable to the old series, leaving the headline number intact while scrutiny and political fallout continue.