Overview
- The India Meteorological Department declared the southwest monsoon over on Wednesday, September 30, reporting 759.4 mm of rain or roughly 87% of the long‑period average (LPA), a shortfall of about 12.6–13%.
- IMD said the season ranks as the fourth‑lowest monsoon since 2001 and was highly uneven, with southern peninsular India down about 24–28% and east and northeast India down roughly 25%.
- District data show 282 districts—about 38% of those assessed—received deficient rainfall, and week‑to‑week swings were extreme, including a 45.4% surplus followed by a 51.1% deficit in July.
- Kharif sowing and water storage were already affected: reported sown area was lower year‑on‑year by around 1.2–1.5 million hectares and many reservoirs hold less water than last year.
- Global and national climate models project a strong El Niño persisting into early 2027, and the IMD forecasts below‑normal rainfall for much of October–December, which raises near‑term risks to winter crop planting and food‑price pressure.