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Indian Stocks Brace for Volatility as Fed Decision and Trump Tariff Deadline Loom

Heavy foreign fund withdrawals alongside key support breaches leave markets on edge before the Fed policy decision

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View of the Port of Los Angeles in California on July 8.
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FILE PHOTO: Bull statues are placed in font of screens showing the Hang Seng stock index and stock prices outside Exchange Square, in Hong Kong, China, August 18, 2023. REUTERS/Tyrone Siu/File Photo/File Photo

Overview

  • Q1 earnings from major companies such as IndusInd Bank, Maruti Suzuki, Hindustan Unilever and ITC will be the primary catalyst for domestic equity sentiment this week
  • Foreign institutional investors shifted to heavy selling in July, withdrawing over ₹28,000 crore and weighing on benchmark indices
  • The Nifty has broken below its 50-day EMA and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level, reflecting a neutral-to-bearish technical bias
  • Market participants are focused on the Federal Reserve’s rate decision and Chair Jerome Powell’s guidance for clues on future capital flows into emerging markets
  • With the Trump tariff suspension expiring on August 1, markets are also bracing for heightened volatility from macroeconomic data including IIP, PMI, auto sales and derivatives expiry