Overview

• An undated Indian government analysis seen by Reuters projects dry-season flows could fall by up to 85% if China’s Yarlung Tsangbo megadam proceeds near the India border.
• The assessment estimates China could divert about 40 billion cubic meters of water, roughly one-third of annual volume at a key border point, according to multiple sources.
• New Delhi is fast-tracking the Upper Siang Multipurpose Storage Dam, with NHPC moving survey materials under armed police protection and high-level meetings held to accelerate work.
• The proposed Indian facility would store about 14 BCM to ease shortages, potentially cutting projected dry-season deficits in Guwahati from 25% to 11%, the analysis indicates.
• China says the hydropower scheme is safe and will not harm downstream countries, while experts and local Adi communities warn of seismic, flooding and displacement risks; India’s project would likely come online after China’s, which targets power generation by the early-to-mid 2030s.