Overview

• Indian refiners plan to raise September purchases of Russian crude by 10–20% from August, or roughly 150,000–300,000 barrels per day, according to trading sources.
• The move follows the U.S. decision to double tariffs on Indian imports to as much as 50%, a step intended to pressure New Delhi over its Russian oil buying.
• Oil prices eased on Thursday as traders weighed the approaching end of the U.S. summer driving season, even after EIA data showed a larger‑than‑expected 2.4 million‑barrel draw in crude stocks.
• Russian refinery outages from Ukrainian strikes have increased seaborne crude availability and widened Urals discounts to $2–$3 below dated Brent, while an early Volgograd restart and resumed Druzhba flows eased immediate supply worries.
• Looking ahead, Goldman Sachs forecasts a sizeable surplus through 2026 that could push Brent down to the low $50s by late 2026 absent offsetting demand or stock changes.