Overview

• Indian refiners plan to raise Russian crude imports in September by about 10–20%, or 150,000–300,000 barrels per day, according to traders citing preliminary purchase data.
• The White House doubled tariffs on Indian imports to as much as 50% this week to pressure New Delhi over Russian oil, yet Reliance Industries and Nayara Energy are expected to lead higher buying.
• Russian sellers widened September Urals discounts to roughly $2–$3 a barrel versus dated Brent after Ukrainian drone strikes knocked out up to 17% of Russia’s refining capacity, freeing more crude for export.
• U.S. EIA data showed a 2.4 million‑barrel crude inventory draw for the week ended Aug. 22 as Brent hovered near $68 and WTI near $64, with traders bracing for weaker post‑holiday demand and increased OPEC+ supply.
• Risk assessments diverge if India halted Russian purchases, with an internal estimate reviewed by Reuters warning of prices as high as $200 a barrel, while CLSA sees a smaller impact and a potential spike toward $90–$100.