Overview
- NSO’s first advance estimates peg real GDP growth at 7.4% and nominal growth near 8%, with services topping 9% and manufacturing around 7% as agriculture slows to about 3.1%.
- The implied pace eases to roughly 6.8–6.9% in the second half after an 8% first half, reflecting softer consumption, a taper in public capex, and lingering US tariff headwinds.
- Despite weak nominal growth, the estimated nominal GDP level of about ₹357.1 lakh crore slightly exceeds the Union Budget assumption, reducing immediate fiscal-deficit worries.
- Private forecasts diverge: Morgan Stanley sees 7.6% and SBI 7.5% for FY26, while Goldman Sachs, Crisil and others expect moderation to roughly 6.5–6.8% in FY27.
- The UN’s WESP report now forecasts India at 6.6% in 2026 and 6.7% in 2027, citing resilient consumption and public investment that help cushion the tariff impact on exports.