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India Set to Become World’s Third-Largest Economy by 2028, Morgan Stanley Forecasts

Sustained infrastructure investment under competitive federalism drives expectations of a $10.6 trillion GDP by 2035

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Overview

  • India’s GDP has already surpassed Japan’s to reach $4.187 trillion, securing its position as the world’s fourth-largest economy
  • The report forecasts national output will more than double to $10.6 trillion by 2035 on the back of robust growth
  • Competitive federalism is driving policy innovations that could propel three to five states—including Maharashtra, Tamil Nadu, Gujarat, Uttar Pradesh and Karnataka—toward $1 trillion GDP between 2030 and 2035
  • India is projected to account for about one-fifth of global economic growth over the next decade, positioning it as a key market for multinational earnings
  • Central capital expenditure has risen from 1.6% of GDP in FY2015 to 3.2% in FY2025, underpinning a 60% rise in highways, a doubling of airports and a quadrupling of metro networks