Overview

• Commerce Secretary Rajesh Agrawal will lead an Indian delegation to Washington this week to resume Bilateral Trade Agreement discussions after August’s pause.
• Officials from both sides remain cautiously optimistic about finalising the first tranche by the fall timeline, with five rounds completed and a sixth effectively back on track.
• U.S. duties on Indian goods remain the key hurdle, with a 25% reciprocal tariff plus a 25% penalty tied to India’s Russian oil purchases raising costs to as much as 50%.
• India is signaling readiness to increase imports of U.S. natural gas and other energy products, with talks also touching on regulatory cooperation and technology trade.
• In parallel, India and the EU closed their 14th FTA round last week and moved to continuous engagement, leaving CBAM, autos and steel among issues still to be resolved before a hoped-for year-end deal.