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India Seen Largely Insulated From U.S. Move in Venezuela, GTRI Says

Trade with Venezuela has shrunk after 2019 sanctions, limiting any immediate impact on the Indian economy.

Overview

  • U.S. forces conducted a large operation in Venezuela, detaining President Nicolás Maduro and his wife and flying them to the United States to face narco-terrorism and drug-trafficking charges.
  • The Global Trade Research Initiative assessed that India faces no meaningful economic or energy shock given low exposure, ongoing sanctions constraints, and geographic distance.
  • India’s FY2025 imports from Venezuela totaled $364.5 million, with crude at $255.3 million, marking an 81.3% plunge from $1.4 billion in crude imports in FY2024; exports were $95.3 million, led by $41.4 million in pharmaceuticals.
  • Venezuela holds about 18% of global proven oil reserves, and GTRI argues that securing access to this upstream crude was central to the U.S. operation.
  • Industry sources cited by PTI say sanction relief or U.S.-led restructuring could unlock roughly $1 billion in Indian dues and enable ONGC Videsh to revive its San Cristóbal stake, including $536 million in unpaid dividends.