Overview
- The government’s year-end review estimates nominal GDP at $4.18 trillion, a level that would also exceed California’s last reported $4.10 trillion even as state and national figures are compiled differently.
- Real growth accelerated to 8.2% in Q2 of FY2025–26 from 7.8% in Q1 and 7.4% in the prior quarter, marking a six-quarter high driven largely by robust private consumption.
- Forecasts have been raised by major institutions, with the IMF at 6.6% for 2025 and 6.2% for 2026, the World Bank at 6.5% for 2026, the OECD at 6.7% for 2025, S&P at 6.5% this fiscal and 6.7% next, the ADB at 7.2% for 2025, and Fitch at 7.4% for FY26.
- New Delhi projects reaching about $7.3 trillion in GDP by 2030 and moving into third place by overtaking Germany in roughly the next two to three years.
- Officials cite easing inflation, a decline in unemployment, stronger credit flows, and improving exports, including $38.13 billion in merchandise shipments in November, while noting India remains the fastest-growing major economy.