Overview
- An ET poll of 12 economists pegs Q2 FY26 GDP at a 7.3% median, while the RBI projects 7%.
- ICRA estimates industrial GVA near 7.8% with manufacturing output at a seven‑quarter high, while services growth cools to about 7.4% and agriculture holds near 3.5% after erratic rains.
- Central capital expenditure rose roughly 30.7% year on year in Q2 as state capex declined 4.6% and the Centre’s non‑interest revenue spending contracted 11.2%.
- Merchandise exports increased about 8.8–8.9% on front‑loaded shipments ahead of expected US tariff changes.
- For FY26, economists’ median GDP forecast is around 6.9% versus the RBI’s 6.8%, and an SBI nowcast points to about 7.5% for Q2 with scope for an upside surprise.