Overview
- Five of India’s largest refiners placed no December orders for Russian oil, with only Indian Oil Corporation and Rosneft-linked Nayara buying cargoes.
- JPMorgan estimates about 1.4 million barrels per day of Russian crude are idling on tankers as buyers hesitate, with China’s state firms halting purchases while independent teapots continue.
- The Urals discount to Brent widened sharply to roughly $19–20 per barrel on an FOB basis at Primorsk and Novorossiysk, reflecting disrupted flows.
- Product markets tightened as ICE Brent–gasoil crack spreads jumped to a 21‑month high above $32 per barrel even as headline crude prices stayed soft.
- Refiners say they will comply with sanctions and are shifting toward Saudi, UAE and Iraqi grades ahead of the deadline, while earlier U.S. tariffs raised effective rates on Indian exports to about 50% and analyses suggest refinery savings are far smaller than potential export losses.