Overview
- Kpler data and market reports show India’s Russian crude imports fell from about 2.8 million barrels per day in July to roughly 2.0 million bpd in August.
- Repeated Ukrainian attacks on Russian refineries and export nodes have reduced Russia’s seaborne export availability and pushed tanker flows lower from more than 4.0 million bpd in July to about 3.5 million bpd in recent weeks.
- China’s stepped-up buying of discounted Russian barrels has increased competition for the remaining cargoes and contributed to India losing access to some grades it previously bought.
- State refiners including Indian Oil Corp, Hindustan Petroleum and Mangalore Refinery have opened spot buying and floated tenders for non-Russian grades from West Africa, the Americas and the Persian Gulf.
- Analysts expect both India’s intake of Russian crude and Russia’s seaborne exports to settle just above two million bpd but note that strikes, shipping risks and Middle East tensions could keep short‑term volumes volatile.