India Predicts Above-Normal Monsoon Rains, Boosting Agricultural Outlook
Forecasts indicate 105% of long-term average rainfall, raising hopes for economic stability and lower food prices, despite concerns over uneven distribution.
- India Meteorological Department (IMD) forecasts above-normal monsoon rains at 105% of the long-term average for the June-September season.
- The monsoon is expected to begin in Kerala around June 1 and retreat by mid-September, with El Niño conditions unlikely to develop this year.
- Improved rainfall is anticipated to benefit agriculture, which supports 18% of India's GDP and the livelihoods of over 42% of the population.
- Experts highlight potential risks of uneven rainfall distribution, with fewer rainy days and more heavy downpours that could lead to localized droughts and floods.
- Higher rainfall is expected to support exports of rice, sugar, and onions, help lower food prices, and stabilize inflation, aiding economic growth.
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