Overview
- India recorded 7.8% GDP growth in Q1 FY27, a figure defended by the chief economic adviser and supported by GST collections, credit expansion and exports.
- Several agencies including Crisil, the ADB, S&P and Moody’s have lifted FY27 growth forecasts toward about 7% on strong first-half momentum.
- Crisil says corporate India and banks look resilient and can absorb up to a 50 basis-point policy rise while maintaining a stable credit outlook.
- Analysts and officials warn the fiscal second half faces headwinds from an El Niño-driven monsoon shortfall and a spike in India’s landed oil price to roughly $117 a barrel in September.
- Crisil projects two modest RBI rate hikes and a slight GNPA rise to about 1.9–2% by year-end, which could squeeze rural consumption and lift food inflation if weather and energy shocks persist.