Overview
- The government's first advance estimates put FY26 real GDP growth at 7.4%, with nominal GDP up about 8% and services-led real GVA growth at 7.3%.
- Financial, real estate and public services are estimated to expand 9.9%, trade–hotel–transport by 7.5%, and manufacturing and construction by 7.0%, with agriculture at 3.1%.
- On the demand side, private consumption is projected to rise 7.0%, gross fixed capital formation 7.8% and government spending 5.2% in FY26.
- Lower inflation and a cumulative 125 bps RBI repo-rate cut in 2025, along with income-tax relief and GST rate reductions, have supported domestic demand.
- India Ratings projects FY27 GDP growth at 6.9% with inflation near 3.8%, flags an estimated Rs 2 lakh crore tax shortfall and debt/GDP near 55.5%, with US tariffs and upcoming GDP/CPI base-year changes cited as key uncertainties.