Overview
- MoSPI’s estimate puts nominal GDP growth at about 8%, down from 9.7% last year, a slowdown that can weigh on tax receipts and percentage-of-GDP fiscal targets after recent GST and income tax cuts.
- Services remain the main engine: financial, real estate, professional and public administration are seen near 9.9% growth, with manufacturing and construction at 7% and agriculture at 3.1%.
- Private consumption is projected to rise 7% and gross fixed capital formation 7.8%, alongside a 5.2% increase in government spending used in the budget’s base math.
- Analysts flag U.S. tariff exposure as a downside risk even as first-half real growth averaged about 8% and the RBI’s latest full-year forecast stands at 7.3%.
- A late‑February revision of GDP and CPI base years will recast recent data, and India Ratings projects FY27 growth around 6.9% with moderate inflation while SBI sees slight upside risk to FY26.