Overview
- The India Meteorological Department said the southwest monsoon closed on September 30 with about 759.4 mm of rain, roughly 87% of the long‑period average and the fourth‑lowest seasonal total since 2001.
- IMD and global models attribute the shortfall primarily to a strengthening El Niño that the agency expects to remain a dominant climate signal through the post‑monsoon and winter months.
- Rainfall was highly uneven, with South Peninsular and East & Northeast India recording the largest deficits, 282 districts classified as deficient, and the East & Northeast region posting its lowest seasonal total on record since 1901.
- A weak June that was about 35% below normal delayed kharif sowing, reported cultivated area remained marginally below last year, and live storage in many major reservoirs was reported lower than a year earlier, all of which heighten concern for rabi planting and yields.
- The season featured extreme week‑to‑week swings in rainfall that masked local extremes, IMD forecasts below‑normal October rainfall (<85% of LPA), and officials warn close tracking of soil moisture, reservoir levels and winter‑crop sowing is now critical.