Overview
- The India Meteorological Department (IMD) forecasts 105% of long-period average rainfall for the June-September monsoon season, with a 59% probability of above-normal rainfall.
- Key climatic drivers include neutral El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) conditions, along with below-normal snow cover in the Northern Hemisphere and Eurasia.
- Regions such as Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Maharashtra, Odisha, Chhattisgarh, Uttar Pradesh, and West Bengal are expected to receive normal to above-normal rainfall, while Jammu and Kashmir, Ladakh, Tamil Nadu, Bihar, and the northeastern states may see below-normal precipitation.
- The monsoon is critical for India, contributing 70% of the country's annual rainfall, supporting 52% of cultivated land, and sustaining livelihoods for over 42% of the population.
- IMD plans to release an updated regional forecast in May, providing greater clarity on rainfall distribution and potential impacts on agriculture and water resources.