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3mo ago

India Meteorological Department Predicts Above-Normal Monsoon for 2025

IMD projects seasonal rainfall at 105% of the long-period average, citing neutral ENSO and IOD conditions and reduced snow cover as favorable factors.

Heavy rain and thunderstorms are likely in Chamba, Kangra, Kullu, Mandi, Shimla and Lahaul-Spiti districts on April 18 and April 19.
Children play in the rain in Mumbai, India, June 20, 2024. REUTERS/ Hemanshi Kamani/File Photo
The forecast, with a ±5% error margin, is slightly more optimistic than Skymet Weather's 102% normal rainfall prediction made last week. (File)
As per this map, most areas in Maharashtra are marked in light blue, indicating above-normal rainfall. Marathwada, parts of southern Maharashtra, and Vidarbha are shown in dark blue, reflecting a high probability of excess rainfall during the monsoon.  (HT)

Overview

  • The India Meteorological Department (IMD) forecasts 105% of long-period average rainfall for the June-September monsoon season, with a 59% probability of above-normal rainfall.
  • Key climatic drivers include neutral El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) conditions, along with below-normal snow cover in the Northern Hemisphere and Eurasia.
  • Regions such as Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Maharashtra, Odisha, Chhattisgarh, Uttar Pradesh, and West Bengal are expected to receive normal to above-normal rainfall, while Jammu and Kashmir, Ladakh, Tamil Nadu, Bihar, and the northeastern states may see below-normal precipitation.
  • The monsoon is critical for India, contributing 70% of the country's annual rainfall, supporting 52% of cultivated land, and sustaining livelihoods for over 42% of the population.
  • IMD plans to release an updated regional forecast in May, providing greater clarity on rainfall distribution and potential impacts on agriculture and water resources.