Overview
- Union Bank of India projects headline CPI at 1.66% for December 2025, up from 0.71% in November.
- Food CPI is expected at -1.19% year over year versus -2.78% in November, with tomatoes showing the sharpest monthly gains based on Department of Consumer Affairs price data.
- Core inflation is projected to have risen to about 4.68%, reflecting a renewed rally in gold prices.
- The official December CPI release is scheduled for January 12, 2026, with figures to confirm or revise these estimates.
- Following its December meeting, the RBI cut the repo rate by 25 basis points to 5.25% and signaled benign inflation with risks from unseasonal winter rains and potential supply disruptions.