Overview
- Bank of Baroda estimates October CPI at 0.4% to 0.6%, in line with wider projections of 0.2% to 0.6%.
- BoB’s Essential Commodities Index fell 3.6% year on year in October, its sharpest drop yet, and was down 3.8% through November 6.
- Onions (-51.2% YoY), tomatoes (-39.9%), and potatoes (-31.3%) led the decline, supported by higher mandi arrivals and increased imports of pulses.
- Analysts cite GST rate cuts and favorable base effects as key drivers and expect the RBI to trim its FY26 inflation forecast at the December 3–5 MPC meeting, with another rate cut viewed as possible.
- The official October CPI print is scheduled for release on November 12.