Overview

• India’s consumer price index fell to 2.10% in June, the lowest year-on-year rate since January 2019, with food prices contracting 1.06%, government data showed.
• Benefitting from strong cereal output and a favorable monsoon, the Reserve Bank of India cut its repo rate by 50 basis points in May and now has room for further monetary easing.
• The U.S. Consumer Price Index climbed 2.7% year-over-year in June, up from 2.4% in May, while core inflation excluding food and energy rose to 2.9%, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
• Tariff-sensitive categories such as furniture, toys and clothing saw roughly 1% price gains in June as companies begin passing higher import duties onto consumers.
• With inflation above the Fed’s 2% target and tariffs expected to keep upward pressure through July and August, the Federal Reserve is widely expected to hold its policy rate at 4.25%–4.50% in July.