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India Hails 2025 ‘Goldilocks’ Economy as Growth Hits Six-Quarter High, Inflation Cools

Officials attribute the gains to resilient domestic demand, tax rationalisation, front-loaded public capex, benign oil prices, accommodative policy.

Overview

  • Real GDP expanded 8.2% in Q2 FY26, the fastest in six quarters, with private consumption anchoring demand.
  • GVA rose 8.1% on the back of strong industry and services performance, supported by front-loaded public investment.
  • Headline CPI slid to unusually low levels through 2025 — about 0.25% in October — as the RBI cut the repo rate 25 bps to 5.25% and raised its FY26 growth forecast to 7.3%.
  • Labour-market metrics improved, with the unemployment rate easing to 4.8% in November and participation increasing, according to PLFS data.
  • External indicators firmed as services exports grew 8.65% to $270.06 billion in April–November, foreign-exchange reserves reached $686.2 billion, the current-account deficit narrowed to 1.3% of GDP, and GDP of $4.18 trillion placed India ahead of Japan with a projection of $7.3 trillion by 2030.