Overview
- S&P Global Ratings forecasts GDP growth of 6.5% in FY26 and 6.7% in FY27, citing tax relief, GST rate cuts and earlier rate reductions that shift growth toward consumption.
- The RBI’s November bulletin reports a pickup in October activity across manufacturing and services, helped by festive demand and the ongoing impact of GST rationalisation.
- Headline retail inflation eased to 0.3% in October, with the RBI highlighting benign financial conditions and a policy mix it says can catalyse a virtuous cycle of private investment.
- RBI Governor Sanjay Malhotra said there is scope for a December rate cut, with the MPC decision due Dec. 5, after cumulative policy easing this year including the repo rate at 5.5%.
- External risks persist as higher effective U.S. tariffs weigh on exports and the merchandise trade deficit hit a record in October, though some U.S. tariff relief steps were noted; Q2 GDP data arrive Nov. 28 with polls near 7.2–7.3%.