Overview

• Skymet Weather predicts a normal monsoon season for India with rainfall at 103% (±5%) of the long period average (868.6mm) for June to September.
• ENSO-neutral conditions, the fading of La Niña, and the absence of El Niño are expected to create favorable conditions for consistent rainfall.
• Western and southern regions, including Maharashtra, Madhya Pradesh, Kerala, and coastal Karnataka, are likely to see adequate to excess rainfall, while the northeast and hilly northern states may face below-normal precipitation.
• A normal monsoon is projected to boost agricultural output, stabilize food inflation below 4%, and support broader economic growth, particularly in rural areas.
• The forecast also highlights the potential influence of a positive Indian Ocean Dipole, which could further enhance monsoon performance in the latter half of the season.