Overview

• India Meteorological Department (IMD) confirms above-normal monsoon rains for June to September, with rainfall expected to reach 105% of the long-period average.
• El Niño, which typically weakens monsoon rains, is unlikely to develop this year, supporting the optimistic forecast.
• The monsoon is critical for India’s agriculture, which supports 42% of the population and contributes 18% to GDP, with nearly half of farmland relying on rainfall.
• Above-average rainfall is likely across most regions, though some areas, including parts of northwest, northeast, and southern Peninsular India, may experience below-average precipitation.
• Improved rains are expected to enhance crop yields, stabilize food prices, and support water resource replenishment, potentially boosting economic stability.