India Forecasts Above-Normal Monsoon Rainfall for 2025

The IMD projects 105% of the long-period average rainfall, driven by neutral El Niño conditions, with regional disparities expected.

The India Meteorological Department (IMD) predicts above-normal monsoon rainfall for June-September 2025, estimating 105% of the long-period average (87 cm).
Neutral El Niño and Indian Ocean Dipole conditions, along with reduced snow cover in Eurasia, are key factors supporting the robust forecast.
While most regions are expected to see normal to above-normal rainfall, areas like Jammu and Kashmir, Ladakh, Tamil Nadu, Bihar, and parts of the northeast may receive below-normal precipitation.
The monsoon is critical for India's agriculture, which supports 42% of the population and contributes 18% to GDP, as well as for replenishing reservoirs and power generation.
Despite improved forecast accuracy, experts caution that uneven rainfall distribution could lead to localized droughts or floods, highlighting the need for preparedness.