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India Forecasts Above-Normal Monsoon for 2025, El Niño Unlikely

IMD projects 105% of long-period average rainfall for June-September, with neutral climate drivers and regional disparities expected.

Children play in the rain in Mumbai, India, June 20, 2024. REUTERS/ Hemanshi Kamani/File Photo
The forecast, with a ±5% error margin, is slightly more optimistic than Skymet Weather's 102% normal rainfall prediction made last week. (File)
As per this map, most areas in Maharashtra are marked in light blue, indicating above-normal rainfall. Marathwada, parts of southern Maharashtra, and Vidarbha are shown in dark blue, reflecting a high probability of excess rainfall during the monsoon.  (HT)
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Overview

  • The India Meteorological Department (IMD) predicts 105% of the long-period average rainfall for the 2025 monsoon season, with a ±5% error margin.
  • El Niño conditions, which typically weaken monsoons, are unlikely to develop, while neutral Indian Ocean Dipole and reduced Eurasian snow cover support favorable rainfall.
  • Regions like Jammu & Kashmir, Ladakh, Tamil Nadu, Bihar, and the Northeast are expected to experience below-normal rainfall, while core monsoon zones may see above-normal precipitation.
  • Climate scientists warn that despite overall surplus rainfall, uneven spatial and temporal distribution could lead to localized floods and droughts.
  • The monsoon, critical for agriculture and water resources, sustains 42% of India's population and contributes over 18% to GDP.