Overview
- The India Meteorological Department reported that the southwest monsoon began withdrawing from parts of West Rajasthan on September 19, signalling the seasonal retreat from northwest India.
- Cumulative rainfall for the June–September season is about 15 percent below the long-term average, a shortfall that would make this the weakest monsoon since 2009 if it holds.
- Specialist forecasts expect a double-digit seasonal deficit to persist, with Lancaster University’s CRUCIAL platform giving a high probability of a 10–20 percent shortfall and analysts projecting a final gap near 13–16 percent.
- A low-pressure system over the Andaman Sea is likely to deepen into a depression around September 21–24 and bring heavy, concentrated rain to eastern and southern states but is unlikely to erase the national deficit.
- Weaker rains have already raised food-price risks and strained farmers and power systems, prompting government actions such as duty-free sugar imports and subsidised onion sales to stabilise supplies and cushion consumers.